Only five games tonight and three of them are functionally irrelevant, unless you think the Blazers can beat Golden State.
Still, the other two combine with last night’s results to give us much to discuss, once again.
In the East, Orlando’s loss to a shorthanded Milwaukee team is the biggest news. It now puts the Magic in a dangerous position to slide down the seeding chart; they were alive to grab the second seed with a win but now could land as low as eighth!!! More on that in a minute.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are in decent shape to hold the second seed, or at worst, slip to third. The Bucks clinch the Central Division with a win or a Cleveland loss, and also clinch the second seed with a win.
However, the Bucks’ final two games are at Oklahoma City and at Orlando. Two losses would open the door for Cleveland and New York to jump them and push the Bucks to the four seed, but that only happens if both squads win out — which requires seven different game results not going Milwaukee’s way.
New York’s game at Boston is the most important East game tonight. The Celtics are awesome but already clinched the top overall playoff seed, so we’ll see which Celtics actually play and for how long. (Also, shout out to Celtics GM Brad Stevens, watching Hoop Summit practices here in Portland with total chill while the news of the Jrue Holiday extension broke).
The Knicks can still grab the second seed if they win their last three games and the Bucks lose their final two. More realistically, New York can lock up the three seed (and, critically, avoid mighty Boston’s side of the bracket) with two wins and either a Cleveland loss or a Milwaukee win. (Yes, a Bucks win helps them in this scenario. A three-way tie with the Bucks and Cavs at 49 wins drops the Knicks to fourth, but a two-way tie with the Cavs at 49 wins puts New York third.)
And should the Knicks lose two of their last three? That puts more chaotic scenarios in the air, as the Magic and Pacers could pass them and push New York down to sixth.
Regardless, Cavs fans should be rooting for Boston; two wins plus two losses by either New York or Milwaukee is the equation Cleveland needs to move up to second or third.
Okay, getting back to Orlando. Suddenly, it’s pretty easy for things to get real bad, even with Miami also losing. Amazingly, the Heat can still be a division champion with two wins and two Orlando losses, a scenario that would likely knock Orlando all the way down to the eighth seed. With Miami hosting a tanktacular Raptors team in its final two games, and Orlando having two losable games left with Philadelphia and Milwaukee, it’s possible.
On the other hand, just one win for the Magic wins their division and locks them into a top-six seed, except in one very peculiar scenario where they’d land seventh. (Philadelphia and Indiana win out, Cleveland beats Charlotte and New York wins at least once.)
Orlando’s loss also helps Philly’s hopes of avoiding the Play-In; the two teams play each other on Friday. To move up to sixth, Philly would just need to win that game and its finale on Sunday, and have either another Orlando loss, two Cleveland losses, two Indiana losses or two Indiana wins.
Out West, the focus tonight is on the New Orleans-Sacramento game. The Kings are clinging to a scenario where they win out, the Pelicans drop their final three games, and Sacramento steals the sixth seed. New Orleans closes with the Warriors and Lakers, so it’s not completely far-fetched.
Watching closely will be Phoenix. The Suns have to win out and hope the Pelicans lose at least once to grab the sixth spot; any combination of three Suns losses and Pelicans wins clinches the sixth spot for New Orleans.
Meanwhile, the Kings can still finish tenth. A loss and a Golden State win would leave the Lakers, Warriors and Kings knotted at 45-35; Sacramento still has that tie-break, however, as well as winning two-way ties against both. The Lakers and Warriors would both need two Kings losses and no more of their own to slip past Sacramento. Golden State also wins the tiebreak with the Lakers, incidentally, and will move up to ninth, presuming it beats Portland tonight.
However, the thing we really care about is MAXIMUM CHAOS. So let me present to you a scenario where the Lakers and Warriors win out, the Kings beat New Orleans and Portland but lose to Phoenix, and the Suns lose to Minnesota.
In that case, we finish the season with a five-way tie at 47-35 between New Orleans, Sacramento, Phoenix, the Lakers and Warriors.
Sadly, the resolution of that tie would be relatively straightforward rather than dragging us into a netherworld of records vs conference playoff teams and other arcana from the tiebreaker chart. Based on the first tie-break, head-to-head record, Phoenix would be sixth, Golden State seventh, Sacramento eighth, New Orleans ninth and the Lakers tenth.
Still, it illustrates that the Pelicans' work isn’t done; falling to ninth and needing two wins next week just to make the playoff field would be quite a fall.
Denver has control of the top seed in the West after last night’s win over Minnesota, but the Nuggets’ work isn’t over. They have a difficult game in San Antonio on Friday, with Victor Wembanyama likely to play, and a loss there would put Oklahoma City back in pole position to steal the top seed. The Thunder win a three-way tie with Denver and Minnesota, while the Nuggets land third. Denver surely won’t lose its finale, however, against the leftover shards of a shattered Memphis team.
If the Nuggets finish first, Minnesota wins the two-way tie-break with Oklahoma City for second. Both teams are tied and likely have at least one difficult game left; Minnesota on Sunday against Phoenix, and Oklahoma City at home against Milwaukee on Friday. I expect their other opponents (Atlanta for the Wolves, Dallas for the Thunder) to rest players based on locked-in playoff positions.
The Clippers’ loss to Phoenix means L.A. still needs one win or one Dallas loss to seal the 4th seed; regardless, they will face the Mavs in the first round. With the Clips having a flagging Utah team up next, this one still seems safe.
